考虑锚固力损失的土质边坡时变可靠度分析

倪自成; 郭玉君; 罗玉珊; 陈一锴; 阮晓波

doi:10.3724/j.gyjzG25081001

考虑锚固力损失的土质边坡时变可靠度分析

doi: 10.3724/j.gyjzG25081001

1. 合肥工业大学汽车与交通工程学院, 合肥 230009;
2. 江苏省地质局第一地质大队, 南京 210041;
3. 上海申元岩土工程有限公司, 上海 200031

基金项目:

江苏省地质工程环境智能监控工程研究中心开发基金（2023-ZNJKJJ-03）；上海市科学技术委员会项目（QNKJ2024024）。

详细信息

作者简介:
倪自成,硕士,主要从事交通基础设施工程方面研究,nizicheng123@163.com。

通讯作者:
阮晓波,博士,讲师,主要从事交通基础设施工程方面研究,xiaoboruan@hfut.edu.cn。

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- 文章访问数: 28
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-08-10
- 网络出版日期: 2026-11-06

Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis of Soil Slopes Considering Anchorage Force Loss

1. School of Automotive and Transportation Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;
2. The First Geological Brigade of Jiangsu Geological Bureau, Nanjing 210041, China;
3. Shanghai Shen Yuan Geotechnical Engineering Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200031, China

摘要

摘要: 为了科学评估锚固土质边坡的时变稳定性，基于锚杆预应力损失与土体蠕变耦合模型，考虑土体强度参数的时空特征与锚固力的时变特性，建立边坡的时变可靠度分析模型，进而利用蒙特卡洛模拟计算锚固土质边坡的失效概率，并确定相应的可靠度指标值。研究结果表明：所建立的可靠度分析模型揭示了锚固边坡参数的时变与随机特性；算例分析一方面验证了基于蒙特卡洛模拟的模型计算结果的合理性，另一方面展现了基于时变可靠度分析模型的工程实践的可操作性。即所建立的时变可靠度分析模型可用于锚固土质边坡的设计与稳定性评估，并为其运营期间的安全管理提供科学依据与技术支持。
- 边坡稳定性 /
- 锚固力损失 /
- 时变可靠度分析 /
- 蒙特卡洛模拟
Abstract: In order to scientifically evaluate the time-dependent stability of anchored soil slopes， a time-dependent reliability analysis model for slopes was established based on the coupling model between anchorage prestress loss and soil creep， considering the spatiotemporal characteristics of soil strength parameters and the time-dependent characteristics of anchorage force. Furthermore， Monte Carlo simulation was used to calculate the failure probability of anchored soil slopes and determine the corresponding reliability index values. The research results indicated that the established reliability analysis model revealed the time-dependent and stochastic characteristics of parameters for the anchored slope. In addition， the case analysis not only verified the rationality of the model calculation results based on Monte Carlo simulation， but also demonstrated the practical applicability of the time-dependent reliability analysis model in engineering practice. In summary， the established time-dependent reliability analysis model can be used for the design and stability assessment of anchored soil slopes， providing scientific basis and technical support for their safety management during operation.
- slope stability /
- anchorage force loss /
- time-dependent reliability analysis /
- Monte Carlo simulation

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