基于情景模拟的城市工程系统地震次生灾害级联失效研究

鲁正; 严德裕; 蒋欢军; 李江远

doi:10.3724/j.gyjzG25042702

基于情景模拟的城市工程系统地震次生灾害级联失效研究

doi: 10.3724/j.gyjzG25042702

1. 同济大学结构防灾减灾工程系, 上海 200092;
2. 同济大学土木工程防灾减灾全国重点实验室, 上海 200092

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划（2022YFC3803000）。

详细信息

作者简介:
鲁正，博士，教授，博士生导师，主要从事工程结构抗震减振和韧性提升方面的研究。电子信箱：luzheng111@tongji.edu.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-04-27
- 网络出版日期: 2026-01-06

Research on Cascading Failure of Earthquake-Induced Secondary Disasters in Urban Engineering Systems Based on Scenario Simulation

1. Department of Disaster Mitigation for Structures，Tongji University，Shanghai 200092，China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering，Tongji University，Shanghai 200092，China

摘要

摘要: 综合考虑承灾体之间的功能关联和地理关联，利用情景模拟方法建立适用于城市工程系统的级联失效模型，针对研究区域展开案例分析，揭示震后次生灾害扩散及承灾体级联失效演化过程。结果显示：城市工程系统中各类基础设施网络呈现出高度的相互依赖性，显著增大了灾害后果的扩散范围；地震震后的演化情景中，即使初始破坏程度较小，但在关联强度较高的情况下，工程系统的破坏程度会随着时间推移明显恶化；在震后次生灾害演化扩散阶段，各种承灾体呈现出不同的受灾敏感度，如学校、加油站等设施更易受到灾害影响，因此应提前为这些承灾体制定防御和应对计划；网络关键节点具有显著的时序演化特征，基于节点时序分析结果可以将网络节点划分为早期主导型、中期爆发型、晚期敏感型3种类型，并分别采取针对性的措施阻断灾害传播。
- 地震 /
- 承灾体 /
- 级联失效 /
- 情景模拟 /
- 次生灾害 /
- 复杂网络
Abstract: This study comprehensively considers the functional and geographical interdependencies among hazard-bearing bodies and employs a scenario simulation approach to establish a cascading failure model applicable to urban engineering systems. A case study is conducted in the research area to reveal the propagation of post-earthquake secondary disasters and the evolutionary process of cascading failures. The results demonstrate that the various infrastructure networks within urban engineering systems exhibit a high degree of interdependence， significantly amplifying the spatial extent of disaster consequences. In the post-earthquake evolutionary scenarios， even with initially minor damage levels， the severity of infrastructure deterioration can markedly worsen over time under conditions of strong interdependency. During the propagation and diffusion phase of secondary disasters， different hazard-bearing bodies display varying levels of vulnerability. For instance， facilities such as schools and gas stations are more susceptible to disaster impacts， which necessitates the formulation of preemptive defense and response plans for these entities. Key nodes in networks exhibit significant temporal evolution characteristics. Based on the temporal analysis results， network nodes can be categorized into three types： early-dominant， mid-term explosive， and late-sensitive. Targeted measures can then be implemented to block disaster propagation accordingly.
- earthquake /
- hazard-bearing body /
- cascading failure /
- scenario simulation /
- secondary disaster /
- complex network

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