Scenario Simulation of Social Stability Risks of a Tunnel Project in Qingdao Based on System Dynamics Model

SHAO Zhiguo; AI Changqin; LI Mengdi

doi:10.3724/j.gyjzG23120803

Volume 54 Issue 2

Feb. 2024

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SHAO Zhiguo, AI Changqin, LI Mengdi. Scenario Simulation of Social Stability Risks of a Tunnel Project in Qingdao Based on System Dynamics Model[J]. INDUSTRIAL CONSTRUCTION, 2024, 54(2): 8-17. doi: 10.3724/j.gyjzG23120803

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SHAO Zhiguo, AI Changqin, LI Mengdi. Scenario Simulation of Social Stability Risks of a Tunnel Project in Qingdao Based on System Dynamics Model[J]. INDUSTRIAL CONSTRUCTION, 2024, 54(2): 8-17. doi: 10.3724/j.gyjzG23120803

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Scenario Simulation of Social Stability Risks of a Tunnel Project in Qingdao Based on System Dynamics Model

doi: 10.3724/j.gyjzG23120803

1. School of Management Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266520, China;
2. School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China

Received Date: 2023-12-08
Available Online: 2024-04-23

Abstract

Abstract

The complexity of major transportation infrastructure projects makes them prone to various conflicts of interest during the construction process, and various risk factors interact with each other, which can easily lead to social stability problems.In the paper, social stability risks were divided into internal risks and external risks, social stability risk indicators were selected based on the five dimensions of government, public, ecology, economy and society, the risk coupling relations of each dimension was analyzed, a coupling model of social stability risks of major transportation infrastructure construction projects based on system dynamics was established, and the social stability risk simulation analysis of a tunnel engineering project in Qingdao was carried out by using Vensim software.The results showed that government risks and ecological risks had greater influence on the tunnel projects. The coupling effect of homogeneous internal risks was stronger than that of homogeneous external risks. The coupling effect of heterogeneous internal risks and the coupling effect of heterogeneous internal-external risks were stronger than the coupling effect of heterogeneous external risks.
- major transportation infrastructure construction projects,
- system dynamics model,
- risk coupling,
- social stability risks,
- risk assessment

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References(23)

References

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