Dynamic Evaluation of Construction Safety Risk for Approaching Excavation of Shield Tunnel Undercrossing High-Speed Railway Based on Cloud Bayesian Network

ZHOU Li

doi:10.13204/j.gyjzG22010711

Volume 53 Issue 11

Nov. 2023

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ZHOU Li. Dynamic Evaluation of Construction Safety Risk for Approaching Excavation of Shield Tunnel Undercrossing High-Speed Railway Based on Cloud Bayesian Network[J]. INDUSTRIAL CONSTRUCTION, 2023, 53(11): 226-233. doi: 10.13204/j.gyjzG22010711

Citation:

ZHOU Li. Dynamic Evaluation of Construction Safety Risk for Approaching Excavation of Shield Tunnel Undercrossing High-Speed Railway Based on Cloud Bayesian Network[J]. INDUSTRIAL CONSTRUCTION, 2023, 53(11): 226-233. doi: 10.13204/j.gyjzG22010711

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Dynamic Evaluation of Construction Safety Risk for Approaching Excavation of Shield Tunnel Undercrossing High-Speed Railway Based on Cloud Bayesian Network

doi: 10.13204/j.gyjzG22010711

ZHOU Li

Wuhan Metro Group Co., Ltd., Wuhan 430040, China

Received Date: 2022-01-07

Abstract

Abstract

A dynamic safety risk evaluation method combining cloud model and Bayesian network was proposed to study the safety of complex approaching excavation of shield tunnel undercrossing railway. Based on literature and a lot of engineering experience, the risk evaluation index system and evaluation standard of shield undercrossing railway construction were established. The state of continuous nodes was discretized through cloud model and the prior probability was obtained. The cloud bayesian network reasoning model was established to predict the aggregation probability distribution of the construction safety risk of shield tunneling railway, and the comprehensive cloud was generated to obtain quantitative risk values, which effectively realized the transformation of qualitative concept of risk and quantitative values. Combined with sensitivity analysis and risk diagnosis, real-time security dynamic control was realized in the stage before, during and after the event. Taking an undercrossing railway project as an example, the method was used to effectively evaluate the system risk level, and the key control factors were determined by reverse diagnosis. It was verified that the method could provide a strong support for the safety management and early warning decision of shield close construction.
- cloud model,
- bayesian networks,
- shield tunneling under high-speed railway construction,
- safety risk,
- evaluation criteria,
- dynamic evaluation,
- risk diagnosis

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References(19)

References

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