Comparisons of Seismic Hazard Analysis Methods for Engineering Sites
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摘要: 针对现有地震危险性分析方法,以北京市主城区为研究区域,分别选用基于历史地震烈度资料的地震危险性分析方法和概率性地震危险性分析方法进行场地地震危险性分析,得到了50年超越概率为10%的场地地震动峰值加速度图。分析结果表明:北京市主城区地震动峰值加速度具有明显的空间变异性,整体呈自西向东逐渐升高的趋势;两种方法所得的地震危险性分析结果是可靠的,而且差别并不大。两种方法各具特色,相对而言,前者假定较少,包含了场地效应且计算难度适中,但应用范围受限;后者综合考虑了多方面因素的影响,假定较多且计算复杂度大,应用范围广。这两种方法均可为地震危险性评估工作提供参考。Abstract: In view of the existing various seismic hazard analysis methods, the seismic hazard analysis method based on historical seismic intensity data and the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to analyze the seismic hazards of the main urban area in Beijing was taken, and the peak ground acceleration with a probability of exceeding 10% in 50 years was obtained. The results showed that the peak ground acceleration of the main urban area in Beijing was of obvious spatial variability, which was gradually increasing from the west of the city to the east; the results obtained from those two methods were reliable and the differences were slight. The methods had their own characteristics, the former had fewer assumptions including site effects and was moderately difficult to calculate, but the application range was limited; the latter was integrated influences of various factors, with multiple assumptions and high computational complexity, but be widely used. Those two methods could provide reference to seismic hazard assessment.
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