A GREY TIME-SEQUENTIAL COMBINED MODEL FOR DYNAMIC PREDICTION OF HORIZONTAL DISPLACEMENT ON THE DEEP EXCAVATION WALL TOP
-
摘要: 深基坑墙顶水平变形是一个动态的相互依存的过程。在基坑开挖与施工过程中,根据变形观测数据用灰色系统理论与时间序列分析方法建立等维新息动态预测预报模型,并随着新数据的加入适时修改模型参数。该模型不要求考虑复杂的变形影响因素。工程实例研究表明:用组合模型预测变形值,其误差大多数情况下小于5%;在变形数据变化较大时,组合模型预测值明显优于单一模型预测值。在变形变化平稳时,用单一的灰色模型或灰色时间序列组合模型预测误差相差不大。预测步数越多,则预测精度越低。Abstract: Horizontal displacement of the wall top of a deep excavation is a dynamic dependent process. During its excavation and construction, a equal intervals dynamic combined prediction model of recent information, in which grey system theory and time series analysis method is adopted, is established on the basis of measured data. With the addition of new deformation datum, the model parameters are continuously modified.The complicated factors influencing the displacement in the model are neglected. The practical displacement prediction of the pit has showed that the error between measure and prediction value is mostly below 5 percent.Under the condition of unstable displacement data, the combined prediction value is superior to that of the single grey model. But with the stable data, the prediction displacement value difference by combined or single model is little. The more prediction step, the more error.
-
杨雪强,刘祖德.论深基坑支护的空间效应.岩土工程学报,1998,20 (2):74~78 [2] 王振龙.时间序列分析.北京:中国统计出版社,2000.22~25 [3] 钟正雄,杨林德,杨金松.基坑变形的实时建模预报时序列分析方法.工业建筑 ,2000,30(3):1~3 [4] 潘国荣,王德辉.建筑物动态变形的模型辨识与预测.测绘学报,1999,28(4) :340~344 [5] 潘国荣,王德辉,刘大杰.预测地铁施工中地表变形的动态系统方法.同济大学学报,2001,29(3):294~296 [6] 肖武权,冷伍明,律文田.某地铁深基坑支护体系内力与变形监测结果分析.工业建筑,2004,34(9):5~7
点击查看大图
计量
- 文章访问数: 89
- HTML全文浏览量: 16
- PDF下载量: 45
- 被引次数: 0